490 in 2027, 613 in 2028 and 2029, and 813 in 2030 and beyond.
▲ Positive scale by year
[Republic of Korea Education Newspaper] On February 10th at 2:00 PM, the Ministry of Health and Welfare held the 7th "Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee" (hereinafter referred to as the "Review Committee") at the Government Complex Seoul (located in Jongno-gu, Seoul). The committee decided to increase the number of physicians trained by an average of 668 per year from 2027 to 2031 at 32 medical schools, excluding Seoul, to strengthen regional, essential, and public medical services. Any additional quota for medical schools exceeding the 2024 school year (3,058) will be selected as regional physicians. Furthermore, the expansion will be implemented in stages to ease the burden on medical education in the early stages of the expansion.
With this decision, the medical school enrollment will increase from 3,058 in 2024 to 3,548 in 2027, an increase of 490 students, and 3,671 in 2028 and 2029, an increase of 613 students. Starting in 2030, with the establishment of public medical schools and regional medical schools, each accepting 100 students, the total medical school enrollment will increase to 3,871. This figure represents an average of 668 additional physicians per year over the next five years.
On this day, the Medical Education Committee (Chairperson: Minister of Health and Welfare Jeong Eun-kyeong) received reports on the ‘Direction for Improving Medical School Education Conditions’ and ‘Measures to Train and Support Medical Personnel for Strengthening Regional, Essential, and Public Medical Services’ and decided on the scale of medical personnel training after 2027 as above.
1. Draft plan for training medical personnel after the 2027 school year
① Background
The Compensation Committee received a report (January 6) on the results of the discussion by the Medical Manpower Supply and Demand Estimation Committee (hereinafter referred to as the Estimation Committee) based on the ‘Basic Health and Medical Services Act’, and based on this, decided on the scale (draft) of training medical manpower through seven meetings.
The supplementary review committee deliberates on the scale of training medical personnel (medical school quota) by respecting the results of the deliberation by the preliminary committee in accordance with the 'Basic Health and Medical Services Act', the Higher Education Act, etc., and consults with the Minister of Education by reflecting the results of the supplementary review.
The number of students admitted to medical schools was gradually reduced to 3,058 after the separation of dispensing and prescribing in 2000, and then increased to 5,058 in 2025. After that, the number of students admitted was adjusted again to 4,567 in 2025 and 3,058 in 2026.
② Main progress
The Medical Education and Medical Care Commission (MEMC) has been discussing the scale of medical workforce training since its first meeting on December 29th of last year. They agreed to respect the supply and demand projections of the Medical Education and Medical Care Committee and to base their decisions on five deliberation criteria (first meeting, December 29th, 2025). These criteria aim to: ① address the shortage of medical professionals in regional, essential, and public medical services; ② consider future changes in the medical environment and ③ evolve health and medical policy; ④ ensure the quality of medical school education; and ⑤ ensure stability and predictability in the scale of training.
After receiving a report on the future supply and demand forecast of the medical workforce from the Statistical Planning Committee (2nd, 1.6), the deliberation criteria were specified, and with 2037 as the base year, the increase in medical workforce would be applied for 5 years from 2027 to 2031, and a re-estimation would be conducted in 2029. In order to resolve the medical gap between regions and stably secure essential medical personnel through the training of medical personnel, it was decided to apply the newly introduced regional doctor system to newly trained personnel, and considering the educational conditions of medical schools, the rate of change in the quota for the 2027 school year compared to the quota for the 2024 school year (3,058 people) was set to be below a certain level (3rd, 1.13).
The committee advanced its discussions, narrowing the scope of medical workforce training to six alternative supply and demand models and examining the current state of medical school education (4th meeting, January 20). Following this, the committee held an "Expert Open Discussion on Medical Workforce Training (January 22)" to gather feedback. A task force meeting (January 23) was also held, comprised of experts, demanders, and suppliers within the committee, to conduct an in-depth review of the supply model.
While examining the educational conditions of medical schools for increased enrollment, the meeting also discussed plans to promote the influx of existing physicians into regional, essential, and public medical services in the short term, and to utilize them efficiently through redeployment and exchange (5th meeting, January 27th). Opinions on the physician training plan were also collected through the Medical Innovation Committee (January 29th) and a meeting of the medical education community (January 31st). The sixth meeting held a comprehensive discussion based on the findings reviewed so far (6th meeting, February 6th).
③ Specific details of the positive scale decision
On December 30th, the Medical Manpower Supply and Demand Estimation Committee proposed three demand-estimation models and two supply-estimation models. Among these, the demand-estimation ARIMA model was comprised of three combinations based on three future forecast scenarios, resulting in a total of 12 model combinations under discussion.
At the 4th meeting (January 20), the review criteria included scenarios that considered both future healthcare environment and policy changes, narrowing the number of model combinations to six. At the 6th meeting (February 6), the number was narrowed down to three, focusing on the Supply 1 model. At today's final meeting, the adjustment review determined the production scale based on the ARIMA model, one of the three demand estimation models, which takes future environmental changes into account. This was due to its stability compared to other models, such as the creation method, and its ability to account for future environmental and policy changes.
The size of the shortage of doctors in 2037 derived through the supply-demand model is 4,724, but assuming that public medical schools and newly established regional medical schools will begin training doctors from 2030 and produce 600 new doctors (400 and 200, respectively) by 2037, the size of the additional training required was calculated to be 4,124.
The number of additional personnel required for training was distributed proportionally to the population of each of the nine provinces, with upper limits applied to each type and size of university. A simple allocation could result in excessive increases, considering the distribution of medical schools in each region. This measure also takes into account the on-site circumstances of universities, such as the 24th and 25th classes taking classes together and students on leave or returning from leave. Accordingly, for national university medical schools with a quota of 50 or more students, the increase rate will not exceed 30% compared to the 2024 admission quota. However, for small national university medical schools with a quota of less than 50 students, a 100% cap will be applied to ensure that they can play a key role in training medical professionals within their regions. For private universities, a 20% cap will be applied for universities with 50 or more students, and a 30% cap for small medical schools with fewer than 50 students.
In addition, for 2027, the existing medical school will be increased by 80% of the original size (490 students), which will alleviate the burden on medical school education in the early stages of the increase.
[News Source: Ministry of Health and Welfare]
